2025 Federal Budget Analysis
26 March 2025

Budget delivers some relief, but misses the mark on reform & resilience
With $17 billion in tax cuts, this budget will benefit working Australians, but the government has again avoided meaningful tax reform. Of note, there is a downgrade to revenue from weak Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) with forecast revenue slashed from $10 billion to $6.3 billion by 2026-27. Australia is collecting more tax from beer drinkers than fossil fuel companies. The government has again failed to scale back support through the diesel fuel tax credits for mining companies, now predicted to increase to $46 billion.
The extension of the energy bill relief ($150) is welcome but not means tested so includes an element of spending waste. Continued investment in community batteries and social housing electrification are steps in the right direction. However, there remains an urgent need for the government to prioritise renewable household energy through rooftop solar and battery programs which offer lasting cost-of-living reductions and emissions cuts.
The budget includes a number of positive measures in health and education, particularly for women’s health and affordable childcare, and continues some investment in future-facing industries like green metals.
One of the most promising developments in the budget is the government’s adoption of the Productivity Commission’s recommendation to eliminate non-compete clauses for low and mid-income workers—a measure that while not a headline grabber, will provide a much need boost to productivity and labour mobility.
It was also good to see a modest increase in foreign aid, in line with calls for Australia to strengthen its leadership in the region.
However, this budget fails to respond adequately to the climate and nature crises. Alarmingly, fossil fuels continue to receive six times the funding allocated to nature. There is no meaningful investment in environmental protection, or additional funding for an EPA despite the enormous and growing fiscal impact of natural disasters.
It's a false premise to think we can prioritise a cost-of-living budget over climate measures as climate change is already costing us, and the longer we wait to mitigate and adapt, the more expensive it will be.
It is disappointing that the government announced a mere $28.8m over two years to ‘improve Australians resilience to natural hazards and preparedness to response to disasters’ in the same section it notes that Cyclone Alfred is estimated to cost $13.5b in disaster support and recovery. Piecemeal upgrades to roads in marginal electorates do not constitute a genuine resilience strategy.
Defence spending is accelerating, but national security isn’t just about weapons and wars – it’s about regional stability. Defence spending alone isn’t enough. When disasters strike, fragile infrastructure turns climate shocks into prolonged crises, fuelling unrest and displacement. True security means helping our neighbours build resilience before disaster strikes.
JobSeeker and Youth Allowance remain unchanged, so our most vulnerable are falling further below the poverty line. There is also a glaring gap in support for women and children escaping domestic violence, with only a $2.5 million increase for crisis accommodation—far below what is needed to address the scale of the crisis.
Climate & Environment
PROGRESS
- $250 million to meet Australia’s ‘30 by 30’ commitment of conserving 30 per cent of Australia’s landmass and 30 per cent of Australia’s marine areas by 2030.
- $31.2 million to NSW for the upgrade and construction of new bicycle paths.
FALLS SHORT
- No significant funding uplift for climate resilience and adaptation.
- Over $46 billion on fuel tax credits. This is six times more than funding for environmental protection.
- Downgrade in revenue forecast of the government’s weak petroleum resource rent tax.
Commentary
- The government has acknowledged that climate change is expected to have a significant impact on the Budget, both in terms of risks and opportunities. However, there has been no new funding for climate adaptation and resilience, simply $28 million of targeted funding, including $17.7 million for the Bushfire Community Recovery and Resilience Program.
- The aftermath of ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been felt throughout this Budget. With $1.2 billion allocated for disaster relief, the full cost is anticipated to rise to $13.5 billion.
- In terms of funding for disaster resilience, there has been little foresight to keep our communities safe with only $200 million expected to be provided over the forward estimates from the Disaster Ready Fund. Disappointingly, we also see a decrease of funding to the National Emergency Management Agency to assist with planning and preparing of future disasters from $27 million in 2025-26 to $12 million in 2028-29.
- We are still waiting for the government’s National Climate Risk Assessment and National Adaptation Plan to understand the full extent of climate risk for our communities. Unfortunately, the extent of new climate resilience investment is limited to flood proofing three roads with $354 million over the forward estimates.
- Despite the Government committing to better monitoring and reporting of methane emissions, there was nothing in the budget. It is disappointing that this funding was not prioritised given how critical it is that our emissions inventory has integrity to achieve the government’s 43% emissions reduction target and commitments under the Paris Agreement.
- In terms of nature, I welcome the government’s announcement of $250 million to fund Australia’s obligation to protect 30% of Australia’s bushland by 2030, but this is a far cry from the $5 billion estimated by the conservation sector. In addition to this, there is great hypocrisy in the $2 million in additional funding for protection of the Maugean Skate captive breeding program, when the government today rammed through legislation that puts the endangered species at risk.
Financial Relief for Individuals & Small Business
PROGRESS
- Reforming Help to Buy Program to increase income threshold and house price limit
- Tax cuts for all Australians.
- $150 energy bill relief for every household and some small businesses.
- HELP changes come into effect - a 20% debt reduction, fairer indexation, and raising the minimum repayment threshold to an annual income of $67,000.
FALLS SHORT
- Commonwealth Rent Assistance indexed but not increased.
- No ongoing funding for instant asset write-off, and no meaningful support for small businesses.
Commentary
- It’s great to finally see the reforming of the Help to Buy scheme to start to match house prices in Warringah. Warringah has around 1% vacancy rate for rental properties and the average dwelling is more than $1 million. First home buyers are struggling to get their foot in the housing market, and this will help – but more needs to be done to reduce the cost of buying a home. However, there is still nothing to assist or support renters.
- I welcome the government’s investment into household electrification, including the continued funding of the Community Solar Banks Program and the Household Energy Upgrades Fund for supporting public and community social housing with electrification. This not only drives down emissions but also helps to bring energy bills down.
- For small business, there is limited financial relief in this Budget. The end of 2024 saw the highest number of insolvencies for small business over the past four years – our small businesses are struggling. We need to legislate a permanent instant asset write off for at least $50,000. It is vital that the Government legislates and makes this available to small businesses without delay.
- With cost-of-living pressures, it is concerning that there is no substantive uplift in Jobseeker, Youth Allowance, Austudy and Commonwealth Rent Assistance. I continue to advocate for the government to increase income support payments, such as JobSeeker, Youth Allowance and Parenting Payment, to at least $82 a day.
Economy & Industry
PROGRESS
- $1 billion over 7 years for the Green Iron Investment Fund.
- $750 million for green metals.
- $2 billion for the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.
- $20 million to support trade diversification with India.
- $54 million to increase supply and adoption of pre-fabrication and modular homes to help increase Australia’s housing supply.
FALLS SHORT
- Budget deficit.
- No new funding for circular economy initiatives.
Commentary
- There’s been talk on both sides of the growing deficit however, there is limited announcements on how we are going to grow the economy through increased productivity. The Government’s already announced $900 million National Productivity Fund provides an avenue to grow a skilled workforce and push out productivity measures, including the $54 million for prefabricated and modular homes and to prohibit non-compete clauses for low- and mid- income earners. However, meaningful, long-term policies and spending are still needed to continue to grow our productivity.
- There is some movement by the Government to decarbonise key industries, with $250 million for manufacturing low carbon fuels for sustainable aviation and diesel-reliant sectors, including transport, agriculture and construction. I also welcome the New Energy Apprenticeships Program and national electrician licensing program to support Australia’s energy transition.
- The $20 million for a Buy Australian campaign, which appears to be the only measure the Government has included to address growing tariff and trade war tensions, feels a bit misplaced. In the face of increased uncertainty, the government has foregone any new funding to push for greater research and innovation programs.
Defence & National Security
PROGRESS
- Funding for building Australia’s domestic defence industry and capabilities.
- Additional $135 million in funding for foreign aid.
FALLS SHORT
- No new funding for the Defence Net Zero and Defence Future Energy Strategies.
Commentary
- Increased global tensions have meant that Australia’s previous heavy reliance on the US as our security backstop can’t be relied on anymore. As a result, there has been additional $1 billion dollars provided to defence in the Budget. This has been bundled with the $9.6 billion in defence funding that was already planned to be spent over the next four years.
- It’s going to be vital to have clear KPIs and deliverables from such an increase in defence spending to ensure that Australia gets value for money and necessary capabilities.
- I welcome the $5.1 billion allocated in Australia’s aid program. This announcement is a timely and much needed signal of our regional commitment and reversing the long-term decline in funding.
Safety at Home, Work & Online
PROGRESS
- $6 million for ACCC’s National Anti-Scam Centre.
- $21.4 million for the implementation of the Australian Law Reform Commission inquiry into the justice responses to sexual violence in Australia.
- $175 million for NDIS integrity and cracking down on fraud.
FALLS SHORT
- No funding for gambling advertising reform.
- No commitment to implementing an online duty of care or holding big tech to account.
- No new funding for Indigenous legal services, despite calls from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Legal Services for $1.15 billion.
Commentary
- Aside from the funding to the ACCC’s National Anti-Scam Centre, there has been limited funding to online safety with no new funding for the e-Safety Commissioner’s work on keep young people safe online.
- Australia continues to face a crisis of women’s safety, yet while the investment of $21.8 million over 2 years for First Nations early intervention and prevention, only a mere $2.5 million has been allocated to crisis accommodation for women and children, which will make little to no difference at a national scale.
- It’s a strong start to see the allocation of $21.4 million in funding to over 3 years to implement the recommendations of the Australian Law Reform Commission’s Inquiry into the Justice System’s Response to sexual violence.
Education
PROGRESS
- Full funding to government schools.
- $1 billion to establish the Building Early Education Fund to increase the supply of high-quality early childhood education.
- Three Day childcare Guarantee funded with $426.6 million.
FALLS SHORT
- No measures to implement real time processing of HECS debt repayment to address indexation timing inequity of HECS.
Commentary
- An additional $407.5 million will see that government schools receive full funding under the School Resource Standard.
- Investment into the early childhood education fund, paired with the 3-day childcare guarantee, is an important and necessary measure to support young families and assist young parents in returning to the workforce.
- A modest investment of $4.8 million is welcome to ensure the continuation of education programs to encourage update of STEM.
- The current Fee-Free TAFE agreement between the Commonwealth and state governments expires in 2027. I welcome the commitment to continue funding the Fee-Free TAFE program, as VAT.
Health & Wellbeing
PROGRESS
- $7.9 billion for Medicare to increase bulk billing services and incentivise GPs to bulk bill patients.
- $793 million funding for women’s health initiatives, such as additional contraceptive pills on the PBS, menopausal hormone therapies added to PBS and 11 more endometriosis and pelvic pain clinics.
- $43.6 million over 4 years for treatment of neuroendocrine tumours.
Commentary
- A number of promises have been made during the course of the election campaign that are now reflected in the budget but there are no significant new measures.
- I welcome the focus on women’s health with $793 million funding for initiatives, such as oral contraceptive pills on the PBS, and efforts to lift support and care provided by GP’s for women experiencing menopause.
- With just over 50% of all medical appointments bulk billed in Warringah, the cost of healthcare is a concern within our electorate. The government announced a lofty goal of 9 out of 10 doctor visits, however, I question whether this is realistic.
- Further, the capping of PBS prescription medication at $25 dollars is welcome, but more needs to be done to ensure that the cost of the PBS medicines doesn’t blow out the budget.
- An announcement of $291.6 million over 5 years to implement aged care reforms is welcome although will do little to address the significantly long wait times to access aged care services in the short term.
- Funding of $1.8 billion for public hospitals is welcome to assist state governments deal with strained emergency services in public hospitals.
- Efforts to address GP shortage with $663 million in funding to create more pathways for GPs and nurses. This is necessary measure in making healthcare more accessible.
- The investment into medical research and particularly rare cancers is important in promoting the health of everyone in our community. This includes $158.6 million over 5 years for the Zero Childhood Cancer Precision Oncology Medicine Program and the Australian Rare Cancers Portal.
- There are also some minor investments in sport that promote inclusion. I welcome the $3.2 million for the Australian Sports Commission to support women’s participation in sport.
Conclusion
On balance, I give this budget a C+ as it represents cautious fiscal management in challenging geopolitical and economic circumstances—but it lacks the ambition and reform required to address climate risks, close equity gaps, and secure a strong, fair economy for future generations.
Disappointingly, we see no new funding for the Australian Electoral Reform to assist with tackling disinformation during the election campaign. There are no new measures positioned to strengthen the existing National Anti-Corruption Commission.
We have seen the government’s plan—but with a May election just weeks away, I’ll be watching the Opposition’s reply with equal measure.
And if you want to really get into the weeds, the Budget Papers are here.
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